Assessment of technologies and economics for carbon dioxide removal from a portfolio perspective

Abstract

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is essential to achieve ambitious climate goals limiting global warming to less than 1.5°C, and likely for achieving the 1.5°C target. This study addresses the need for diverse CDR portfolios and introduces the LUT-CDR tool, which assesses CDR technology portfolios aligned with hypothetical societal preferences. Six scenarios are described, considering global deployment limitations, techno-economic factors, area requirements, technology readiness, and storage security for various CDR options. The results suggest the feasibility of large-scale CDR, potentially removing 500–1750 GtCO₂ by 2100 to meet the set climate targets. For a 1.0°C climate goal, CDR portfolios necessitate 12.0–37.5% more primary energy compared to a scenario without CDR. Remarkably, funding a 1.0°C target requires only 0.42–0.65% of the projected global gross domestic product. Bioenergy carbon capture and sequestration and rainfall-based afforestation play limited roles, while secure sequestration of captured CO₂ via direct air capture, electricity-based carbon sequestration, and desalination-based afforestation emerge as more promising options. The study offers crucial techno-economic parameters for implementing CDR options in future energy-industry-CDR system analyses and demonstrates the tool's flexibility through alternative assumptions. It also discusses limitations, sensitivities, potential trade-offs, and outlines options for future research in the area of large-scale CDR.