Reducing coal use is key to curbing toxic trace elements emissions in China driven by carbon neutrality policy

Abstract

Toxic trace elements (TEs) are commonly co-emitted with carbon dioxide (CO₂) and pose challenges to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the extent to which carbon mitigation measures can simultaneously reduce these pollutants remains unclear. Here, we developed an integrated assessment model to evaluate the impact of China’s carbon neutrality policies on TEs emissions from coal combustion across various regions and sectors. Our findings reveal that, compared to baseline scenarios, a 77% carbon reduction under the carbon neutrality policies leads to an 85%-88% decrease in TEs emissions in 2060 within coal-consuming sectors, highlighting the importance of regional and sectoral heterogeneity. We identified key regions and sectors with disproportionately high emission intensities and co-reduction potential. Priority regions include Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Hubei, and Jiangsu, while critical sectors include petrol oil, power generation, services, chemicals, and metal smelting. We also portrayed, for the first time in literature, an integrated long-term roadmap for synergistic control of CO₂ and TEs emissions. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing multi-pollution reduction strategies and enhancing environmental governance efficacy.