Male Twin Live Births Following Unconditional Cash Transfers in Alaska: A Time-Series Analysis.

Abstract

Prior studies report a decline in male twin live births during economically stressful periods, presumably owing to higher selection in utero against frail male gestations, yet no study has examined the natural corollary: whether provision of economic support increases rates of male twin births. We examined whether male twin live births increase following income gains from the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)-the longest running unconditional cash transfer program in the US. We obtained the monthly volume of male (and female) twin and singleton live births, from January 1980 to December 2019, from Alaska's Department of Health. Data on PFD timing and payment amounts came from Alaska's Department of Revenue. We used time-series analyses to gauge whether the odds of male twin live births increase within 2-6 months following PFD receipt, controlling for autocorrelation. Results suggest that for every $1000 increase in PFD payments, the odds of male twin live births increase by 0.002 (p < .05) three months following PFD disbursement. This corresponds with 50 additional (individual) male twin live births statistically attributable to the cumulative PFD amount disbursed over our study period. Income gains through the PFD may correspond with reduced male-specific selection in utero in Alaska.