Risk Stratification for Trial Enrichment Considering Loco-Regional Failure in Head and Neck Cancer: UICC8 Versus Purpose-Built Failure-Type Specific Risk Prediction Model.

IF 2.3 3区医学 Q1 OTORHINOLARYNGOLOGY

Head and Neck-Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck Pub Date : 2025-01-31 DOI:10.1002/hed.28085

Katrin Håkansson, Daha Hassan Muse, Anna Bäck, Jacob H Rasmussen, Anne Marie Lindegaard, Lena Specht, Jeppe Friborg, Hedda Haugen Cange, Ivan R Vogelius

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: A previously published failure-type specific risk model showed good performance in the original cohort.

Aim: to validate the model and separate patients with high- and low-risk loco-regional failure (LRF).

Goal: to identify patients potentially suitable for treatment intensification trials.

Methods: Validation data: 756 patients from two institutions (different countries). Predictive performance was evaluated by Brier scores and AUCs. Discriminatory performance was compared to Union for International Cancer Control (UICC) staging (versions 7 and 8).

Results: The model's 3-year AUC for LRF was 65%, significantly better than UICC7 staging, but no significant difference to UICC8. Model-based risk stratification and UICC8 both identified high-risk patient groups with 3-year LRF ≈30%. The population mean was 18%.

Conclusions: The model performed well on a group level. UICC8 staging performed equally well. Although developed for the endpoint of OS, an improvement from UICC version 7 to version 8 was evident also for the prediction of LRF.

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考虑头颈癌局部-区域失败的试验强化风险分层：UICC8与专门建立的失败类型特定风险预测模型

背景：先前发表的失败类型特定风险模型在原始队列中表现良好。目的：验证该模型并区分高、低风险局部-区域衰竭（LRF）患者。目的：确定可能适合治疗强化试验的患者。方法：验证数据：来自两个机构（不同国家）的756例患者。通过Brier评分和auc评估预测性能。结果：该模型对LRF的3年AUC为65%，明显优于UICC7分期，但与UICC8分期无显著差异。基于模型的风险分层和UICC8都确定了3年LRF≈30%的高危患者组。总体平均值为18%。结论：模型在组水平上表现良好。UICC8分期表现同样良好。虽然是为OS终端开发的，但对于LRF的预测，从UICC版本7到版本8的改进也很明显。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Head and Neck-Journal for the Sciences and Specialties of the Head and Neck 医学-耳鼻喉科学

CiteScore

7.00

自引率

6.90%

发文量

278

审稿时长

1.6 months

期刊介绍： Head & Neck is an international multidisciplinary publication of original contributions concerning the diagnosis and management of diseases of the head and neck. This area involves the overlapping interests and expertise of several surgical and medical specialties, including general surgery, neurosurgery, otolaryngology, plastic surgery, oral surgery, dermatology, ophthalmology, pathology, radiotherapy, medical oncology, and the corresponding basic sciences.