Time series trend detection and forecasting of SUHI in Tabriz, Iran

IF 6 2区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Urban Climate Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102321

Mohammad Ali Koushesh Vatan , Mohammad Nemati , Aliihsan Sekertekin , Mobin Zehtabi Aslkhiabani

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the seasonal daytime and nighttime SUHI trend of Tabriz, using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall, Innovative Trend Analysis, and MODIS data, and to forecast the SUHI trend by 2030 using SARIMA and NNAR. Considering the SUHI analysis, daily MODIS images were processed in the Google earth engine platform. Based on mean SUHI values, the analysis showed that Tabriz has insignificant daytime SUHI, and the mean Summer SUHI is negative (−3.9 °C). Conversely, mean nighttime SUHI is positive for all seasons. Furthermore, the annual mean of SUHI is negative in the daytime, while positive in the nighttime. Also, Tabriz has daytime cool islands and intense nighttime heat islands. Considering the MK analysis, the negative monotonic trend is captured for all the seasons except Winter during daytime. On the other hand, ITA analysis revealed that the mean SUHI trend in winter and autumn was trend-free, whereas a decreasing trend was observed for Spring and Summer. Based on the forecasting SUHI for 2030, the NNAR outperformed the SARIMA by presenting lower RMSE. Overall, this study presented seasonal and annual daytime and nighttime SUHI analyses of Tabriz, and showed that the MODIS data enables effective long-term SUHI evaluations at regional scales.

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来源期刊

Urban Climate Social Sciences-Urban Studies

CiteScore

9.70

自引率

9.40%

发文量

286

期刊介绍： Urban Climate serves the scientific and decision making communities with the publication of research on theory, science and applications relevant to understanding urban climatic conditions and change in relation to their geography and to demographic, socioeconomic, institutional, technological and environmental dynamics and global change. Targeted towards both disciplinary and interdisciplinary audiences, this journal publishes original research papers, comprehensive review articles, book reviews, and short communications on topics including, but not limited to, the following: Urban meteorology and climate[...] Urban environmental pollution[...] Adaptation to global change[...] Urban economic and social issues[...] Research Approaches[...]