Mitigation policies interactions delay the achievement of carbon neutrality in China

Abstract

The achievement of China’s carbon neutrality is crucial for the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement and must involve the implementation of various mitigation policies. However, these efforts are hindered by poor knowledge of the interactions between policies. Here we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China (CEEGE model) and create a policy portfolio area of 1,295 scenarios covering four major mitigation strategies (carbon pricing, energy efficiency, renewable energy and electrification of end uses). When the interactions between mitigation policies are considered, the percentage of scenarios in which the carbon neutrality target is reached by 2060 decreases by 84%, with the years in which these scenarios are achieved being delayed by 5–6 years. Only the combinations with renewable energy and electrification of end uses generate synergetic effects on both economic and mitigation impacts. Our work can inform the formulation of more efficient mitigation policy portfolios by emphasizing policy interactions. Various policy instruments are proposed to meet mitigation targets, yet the synergistic and trade-off effects of interactions are less understood. With rich scenarios of policy mixes, the authors demonstrate that in most cases these interactions will delay the achievement of carbon targets in China.