Increasing rat numbers in cities are linked to climate warming, urbanization, and human population.

Abstract

Urban rats are commensal pests that thrive in cities by exploiting the resources accompanying large human populations. Identifying long-term trends in rat numbers and how they are shaped by environmental changes is critical for understanding their ecology, and projecting future vulnerabilities and mitigation needs. Here, we use public complaint and inspection data from 16 cities around the world to estimate trends in rat populations. Eleven of 16 cities (69%) had significant increasing trends in rat numbers, including Washington D.C., New York, and Amsterdam. Just three cities experienced declines. Cities experiencing greater temperature increases over time saw larger increases in rats. Cities with more dense human populations and more urbanization also saw larger increases in rats. Warming temperatures and more people living in cities may be expanding the seasonal activity periods and food availability for urban rats. Cities will have to integrate the biological impacts of these variables into future management strategies.