An assessment of the Chilean COVID-19 surveillance program through the comparison between reported and true SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence: A case study of three urban centers in southern Chile.

IF 3.9 3区医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Public Health Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI:10.1016/j.puhe.2024.12.033

Cristóbal Verdugo, Claudio Verdugo, Alberto Fica, Felipe Hernández, Alfredo Ramírez-Reveco, Anita Plaza, Natalia Castro, Maximiliano Hernández-Riquelme, Gerardo Acosta-Jamett

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives: Estimate the detection limits of the COVID-19 surveillance system (SS) in Chile, by estimating the SARS-CoV-2 true prevalence (TP) and the reported official positivity prevalence (OPP) gap.

Study design: Randomized cross-sectional.

Methods: Two sampling campaigns (SC) were conducted (October-November 2020 and December 2020-January 2021) in the cities of Temuco, Valdivia, and Osorno. Blood was collected from adults from randomly selected households. Sera were analyzed using a commercial later flow test (LFT). A meta-analysis was performed to estimate LFT-performance in asymptomatic-cases. Data were analyzed using a Bayesian latent class model (BLCM) to estimate TP. Finally, BLCM outputs were compared with the OPP, by calculating the TP/OPP rate.

Results: 1124 and 1017 households were visited during the 1st and 2nd SC, respectively. The BLCM rendered TP estimates of 6.5 %, 3.2 %, and 6.6 % for the cities of Temuco, Valdivia, and Osorno, respectively (1^stSC), increasing to 9.4 %, 5.0 %, and 7.5 %, 60 days later (2^ndSC). Depending on the city and SC, TP/OPP rates varied between 2.3 and 5.7.

Conclusion: The national SS was unable to detect 70-79 % of all infected cases, suggesting that mild and asymptomatic cases were scarcely detected.

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来源期刊

Public Health 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

280

审稿时长

37 days

期刊介绍： Public Health is an international, multidisciplinary peer-reviewed journal. It publishes original papers, reviews and short reports on all aspects of the science, philosophy, and practice of public health.