Nomogram based on dual-energy computed tomography to predict the response to induction chemotherapy in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a two-center study.

Abstract

Background: Previous studies utilizing dual-energy CT (DECT) for evaluating treatment efficacy in nasopharyngeal cancinoma (NPC) are limited. This study aimed to investigate whether the parameters from DECT can predict the response to induction chemotherapy in NPC patients in two centers.

Methods: This two-center retrospective study included patients diagnosed with NPC who underwent contrast-enhanced DECT between March 2019 and November 2023. The clinical and DECT-derived parameters of tumor lesions were calculated to predict the response. We employed univariate and multivariate analysis to identify significant factors. Subsequently, the clinical, DECT, and clinical-DECT nomogram models were developed using independent predictors in the training cohort and validated in the test cohort. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the models' performance.

Results: A total of 321 patients were included in the study, predominantly male [247 (76.9%)] with an average age of 52.04 ± 10.87 years. The training cohort (Center 1) comprised 252 patients, while the test cohort (Center 2) comprised 69 patients. Of these, 233 out of 321 patients (72.6%) were responders to induction chemotherapy. The clinical-DECT nomogram showed an AUC of 0.805 (95% CI, 0.688-0.906), outperforming both the DECT model (Extracellular volume fraction [ECVf]) (AUC, 0.706 [95% CI, 0.571-0.825]) and the clinical model (Ki67) (AUC, 0.693 [95% CI, 0.580-0.806]) in the test cohort.

Conclusions: Ki67 and ECVf emerged as independent predictive factors for response to induction chemotherapy in NPC patients. The proposed nomogram, incorporating ECVf, demonstrated accurate prediction of treatment response.