Risk Prediction Model of Peristomal Skin Complications Among Patients with Colorectal Cancer and an Ostomy: A Cross-sectional Study in Shanghai, China.

IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q3 DERMATOLOGY
Advances in Skin & Wound Care Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-27 DOI:10.1097/ASW.0000000000000245
Li-Li Ma, Ya-Juan Zhang, Hui-Ren Zhuang, Hui Jiang
{"title":"Risk Prediction Model of Peristomal Skin Complications Among Patients with Colorectal Cancer and an Ostomy: A Cross-sectional Study in Shanghai, China.","authors":"Li-Li Ma, Ya-Juan Zhang, Hui-Ren Zhuang, Hui Jiang","doi":"10.1097/ASW.0000000000000245","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the risk factors for peristomal skin complications (PSCs) in patients with colorectal cancer and an ostomy, construct a prediction model, and verify its effectiveness.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this cross-sectional study, researchers recruited 265 patients with an ostomy at the stoma clinic of a tertiary hospital, from May 2022 to August 2023. Patients were divided into two groups: complications group (n = 81) and no complications group (n = 184). Researchers constructed a logistic regression prediction model using univariate and multivariate analyses. From May 2023 to August 2023, a validation group of 135 patients with an ostomy was selected for external validation of the model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of PSCs was 30.57% in the modeling group and 30.37% in the validation group. The predictor variables were preoperative and postoperative health education, tumor therapy within 3 months, preoperative stoma positioning, stoma height, stoma type, and excrement state. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of .513, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.872, the Youden index was 0.561, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.827 and 0.734. For external validation, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of .835, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.887, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.905 and 0.720, respectively.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The prediction model demonstrates good predictive efficacy and can serve as a reference for clinical caregivers in identifying patients at high risk of PSCs.</p>","PeriodicalId":7489,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Skin & Wound Care","volume":" ","pages":"133-141"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Skin & Wound Care","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/ASW.0000000000000245","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/1/27 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"DERMATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the risk factors for peristomal skin complications (PSCs) in patients with colorectal cancer and an ostomy, construct a prediction model, and verify its effectiveness.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, researchers recruited 265 patients with an ostomy at the stoma clinic of a tertiary hospital, from May 2022 to August 2023. Patients were divided into two groups: complications group (n = 81) and no complications group (n = 184). Researchers constructed a logistic regression prediction model using univariate and multivariate analyses. From May 2023 to August 2023, a validation group of 135 patients with an ostomy was selected for external validation of the model.

Results: The incidence of PSCs was 30.57% in the modeling group and 30.37% in the validation group. The predictor variables were preoperative and postoperative health education, tumor therapy within 3 months, preoperative stoma positioning, stoma height, stoma type, and excrement state. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of .513, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.872, the Youden index was 0.561, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.827 and 0.734. For external validation, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of .835, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.887, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.905 and 0.720, respectively.

Conclusions: The prediction model demonstrates good predictive efficacy and can serve as a reference for clinical caregivers in identifying patients at high risk of PSCs.

结直肠癌和造口术患者口周皮肤并发症的风险预测模型:中国上海的一项横断面研究。
目的:分析结直肠癌造口术患者口周皮肤并发症(PSCs)发生的危险因素,建立预测模型并验证其有效性。方法:在这项横断面研究中,研究人员从2022年5月至2023年8月在一家三级医院的造口门诊招募了265例造口患者。患者分为并发症组(n = 81)和无并发症组(n = 184)。研究人员利用单变量和多变量分析构建了logistic回归预测模型。2023年5月至2023年8月,选取135例造口患者作为验证组,对模型进行外部验证。结果:造模组和验证组PSCs的发生率分别为30.57%和30.37%。预测变量为术前术后健康教育、3个月内肿瘤治疗、术前造口位置、造口高度、造口类型、粪便状态。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验P值为0.513,ROC曲线下面积为0.872,约登指数为0.561,敏感性和特异性分别为0.827和0.734。外部验证采用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验,P值为0.835,ROC曲线下面积为0.887,敏感性为0.905,特异性为0.720。结论:该预测模型具有较好的预测效果,可作为临床护理人员识别PSCs高危患者的参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
Advances in Skin & Wound Care
Advances in Skin & Wound Care DERMATOLOGY-NURSING
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
12.50%
发文量
271
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: A peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary journal, Advances in Skin & Wound Care is highly regarded for its unique balance of cutting-edge original research and practical clinical management articles on wounds and other problems of skin integrity. Each issue features CME/CE for physicians and nurses, the first journal in the field to regularly offer continuing education for both disciplines.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信