A Ge.F.I. Collaborative Study: Evaluating Reproducibility and Accuracy of a DNA-Methylation-Based Age-Predictive Assay for Routine Implementation in Forensic Casework

Abstract

The increasing interest in DNA methylation (DNAm) analysis within the forensic scientific community prompted a collaborative project by Ge.F.I. (Genetisti Forensi Italiani). The study evaluated a standardized bisulfite conversion–based Single Base Extension (SBE) protocol for the analysis of the methylation levels at five age-predictive loci (ELOVL2, FHL2, KLF14, C1orf132/MIR29B2C, and TRIM59). The study encompassed three phases: (1) setting up and validating the protocol to ensure consistency and reproducibility; (2) comparing fresh peripheral blood with blood spots; and (3) evaluating sources of intra- and inter-laboratory variability. Samples from 22 Italian volunteers were analyzed by 6 laboratories in replicates for a total of 528 records. From phase I emerged that the choice of genetic sequencer significantly contributed to inter-laboratory data variation, resulting in separate regression analyses performed for each laboratory. In phase II, blood spots were found to be a reliable source for DNAm analysis, despite exhibiting increased experimental variation compared to fresh peripheral blood. In phase III, a strong correlation between the individual's predicted and true ages was observed across different laboratories. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the residuals indicated that one-third of the total variance could be attributed to laboratory-specific factors, whereas two-thirds could be attributed to inter-individual biological differences. The leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) method yielded an overall mean absolute deviation (MAD) value of 4.41 years, with an average 95% confidence interval of 5.24 years. Stepwise regression analysis proved that a restricted model (ELOVL2, C1orf132/MIR29B2C, and TRIM59) produced results virtually indistinguishable from the five-loci model. Additionally, the analysis of samples in replicates greatly improved the fit of the regression model, balancing the slight effects of intra-laboratory variability. In conclusion, the bisulfite conversion–based SBE protocol, combined with replicate analysis and in-lab calibration of a regression-prediction model, proves to be a reliable and easily implementable method for age prediction in forensic laboratories.