Evaluating the Impact of Private and Public Sentiments on the Linkage Between Gold and Stock Markets: Evidence from China.

Abstract

Gold and stocks, which are conventionally regarded as a safe haven and risk assets, respectively, exhibit complex interrelationships, with significant implications for financial risk management. This paper builds on the sentiment categorization proposed by Liang et al. (2020) to distinguish between private and public sector sentiment. The construction of sentiment indices for both sectors aims to allow the exploration of the heterogeneous effects of these sector-specific sentiments on the gold-stock market linkages in China under different market conditions. The empirical results demonstrate a notable asymmetry in the impact of market sentiment between the public and private sectors, with distinct manifestations in stable versus highly volatile market environments. Specifically, positive sentiment in the public sector tends to diminish the safe-haven function of gold, whereas positive sentiment in the private sector tends to reinforce it. This disparity becomes particularly evident during periods of extreme market volatility. Our findings not only underscore the diverse impacts of market sentiment but also provide novel insights into the importance of incorporating sector-specific sentiment when devising hedging strategies for specific industries.