[Development and validation of a risk prediction model for early postoperative high intraocular pressure after implantation of posterior chamber intraocular lens].

Abstract

Objective: To develop and validate a predictive model for assessing the risk of early postoperative high intraocular pressure (HIOP) following posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation. Methods: The clinical data of patients who underwent posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine between May 2023 and April 2024 were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were divided into a modeling group and a validation group with a 7∶3 ratio using computerized random allocation. The modeling group was further categorized into normal intraocular pressure and HIOP groups based on the occurrence of early postoperative HIOP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was employed to establish a risk prediction model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted using R software to assess the predictive ability and accuracy of the model, along with calibration and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve plotting. Results: A total of 239 patients (478 eyes) were enrolled. The modeling group consisted of 168 patients (82 males and 86 females) (336 eyes), with an average age of (25.5±5.1) years. The validation group consisted of 71 patients (36 males and 35 females) (142 eyes), with an average age of (24.7±5.7) years. The early postoperative HIOP incidence rate after posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation was 32.4% (109/336), while it was 26.8% (38/142) in the validation group. The multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that preoperative refractive diopter (OR=0.873, 95%CI: 0.782-0.976, P=0.017), corneal endothelial cell count (OR=0.996, 95%CI: 0.995-0.997, P<0.001), corneal thickness (OR=1.015, 95%CI: 1.006-1.024, P=0.001), and preoperative intraocular pressure (OR=1.470, 95%CI: 1.283-1.686, P<0.001) were associated factors for early HIOP. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the χ² value was 8.444 (P=0.391), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.888 (95%CI: 0.852-0.925). The Youden index reached its maximum value of 0.646, with a sensitivity of 0.862 and specificity of 0.784. AUC of validation group was 0.921 (95%CI: 0.870-0.972), with a maximum Youden index of 0.765, sensitivity of 0.842 and specificity of 0.923. Conclusions: The risk prediction model constructed based on preoperative refractive diopter, corneal endothelial cell count, corneal thickness, and preoperative intraocular pressure demonstrates good predictive performance for early postoperative HIOP following posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation.