The impact of geographically-targeted vaccinations during the 2018-2020 Kivu Ebola outbreak

IF 4.4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Applied Mathematical Modelling Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI:10.1016/j.apm.2025.115972

Suliman Jamiel M. Abdalla , Keshlan S. Govinder , Faraimunashe Chirove

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The 2018–2020 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) was the second-largest in history, mainly because of security challenges and community mistrust. This study evaluates the impact of geographically targeted vaccinations (GTVs) as a complementary strategy when traditional measures—contact tracing, ring vaccinations, and antiviral treatments—are insufficient. We develop a novel mathematical model, incorporating key factors such as transmission from the deceased, heterogeneity in susceptibility, migration patterns, and control measures. Numerical simulations reveal that while traditional control measures substantially reduce cumulative cases to 3500 within one year, compared to over 10 million cases without intervention, population movement into high-infection areas intensifies transmission by increasing the pool of susceptible individuals. This highlights the need to reduce the flow of population into high-risk regions. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters, including effective contact rate and the rate of movement into areas with high infections, as critical epidemic drivers. Contour plots demonstrate that GTVs in areas with high infections significantly reduce the spread of EVD. Model findings emphasise integrating GTVs and population flow management with traditional strategies to strengthen outbreak responses in conflict-prone regions.

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来源期刊

Applied Mathematical Modelling 数学-工程：综合

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

8.00%

发文量

508

审稿时长

43 days

期刊介绍： Applied Mathematical Modelling focuses on research related to the mathematical modelling of engineering and environmental processes, manufacturing, and industrial systems. A significant emerging area of research activity involves multiphysics processes, and contributions in this area are particularly encouraged. This influential publication covers a wide spectrum of subjects including heat transfer, fluid mechanics, CFD, and transport phenomena; solid mechanics and mechanics of metals; electromagnets and MHD; reliability modelling and system optimization; finite volume, finite element, and boundary element procedures; modelling of inventory, industrial, manufacturing and logistics systems for viable decision making; civil engineering systems and structures; mineral and energy resources; relevant software engineering issues associated with CAD and CAE; and materials and metallurgical engineering. Applied Mathematical Modelling is primarily interested in papers developing increased insights into real-world problems through novel mathematical modelling, novel applications or a combination of these. Papers employing existing numerical techniques must demonstrate sufficient novelty in the solution of practical problems. Papers on fuzzy logic in decision-making or purely financial mathematics are normally not considered. Research on fractional differential equations, bifurcation, and numerical methods needs to include practical examples. Population dynamics must solve realistic scenarios. Papers in the area of logistics and business modelling should demonstrate meaningful managerial insight. Submissions with no real-world application will not be considered.