Overcoming Shifting Baselines: Paleo-Behaviour Reveals Industrial Revolution as Tipping Point

Abstract

Human activities have significantly altered coastal ecosystems worldwide. The phenomenon of shifting baselines syndrome (SBS) complicates our understanding of these changes, masking the true scale of human impacts. This study investigates the long-term ecological effects of anthropogenic activities on New Zealand's coastal ecosystems over 800 years using fish otolith microchemical profiling and dynamic time warping across an entire stock unit. Results reveal a shift in snapper (Chrysophrys auratus; Sparidae) habitat-use behaviour, transitioning from low-salinity estuarine environments to higher-salinity habitats, correlating with ongoing land-use changes. This shift coincided with New Zealand's localised Industrial Revolution, which served as a tipping point for widespread ecosystem transformation. By comparing current coastal fish movement profiles with historical baselines, we provide evidence to address SBS and guide conservation strategies. Re-establishing pre-industrial habitat-use behaviours in snapper will indicate successful habitat restoration, promoting overall ecosystem connectivity and resilience. Our findings enable more effective habitat restoration measures and sustainable management practices, informing policies for maintaining coastal biodiversity and ecosystem function.