Comparing Summed Probability Distributions of Shoreline and Radiocarbon Dates from the Mesolithic Skagerrak Coast of Norway

Abstract

By developing a new methodology for handling and assessing a large number of shoreline dated sites, this paper compares the summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates and shoreline dates along the Skagerrak coast of south-eastern Norway. Both measures have previously been compared to elucidate demographic developments in Fennoscandia, but these have not been based on probabilistic methods for shoreline dating. The findings indicate a largely diverging development of the two data sets through the Mesolithic. The number of shoreline dated sites undergoes some process of overall decrease through the period, while the radiocarbon data is characterised by a lacking signal in the earliest parts of the period and then undergoes a logistic growth that quickly plateaus and remains stable for the remainder of the period. The precise nature of this discrepancy will necessitate further substantiation and the method of shoreline dating itself still requires further testing and assessment. Having noted this, we still tentatively suggest that while the number of shoreline dated sites is not devoid of influence from a demographic signal, this measure could be more heavily influenced by mobility patterns. Conversely, we also suggest that the lacking radiocarbon data from the earliest part of the Mesolithic is in part the result of mobility patterns, but that the radiocarbon data could be reflecting population dynamics more directly.