A Non-Equilibrium Species Distribution Model Reveals Unprecedented Depth of Time Lag Responses to Past Environmental Change Trajectories

IF 7.6 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecology Letters Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI:10.1111/ele.70040

Etienne Lalechère, Ronan Marrec, Jonathan Lenoir

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Abstract

Previous studies have demonstrated legacy effects of current species distributions to past environmental conditions, but the temporal extent of such time lag dynamics remains unknown. Here, we have developed a non-equilibrium Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) approach quantifying the temporal extent that must be taken into account to capture 95% of the effect that a given time series of past environmental conditions has on the current distribution of a species. We applied this approach on the distribution of 92 European forest birds in response to past trajectories of change in forest cover and climate. We found that non-equilibrium SDMs outperformed traditional SDMs for 95% of the species. Non-equilibrium SDMs suggest unprecedented long-lasting effects of past global changes (average time lag extent ranged from 9 to 231 years). This framework can help to relax the equilibrium hypothesis of traditional SDMs and to improve future predictions of biodiversity redistribution in response to global changes.

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一个非平衡物种分布模型揭示了对过去环境变化轨迹的空前深度的时间滞后响应

以前的研究已经证明了当前物种分布对过去环境条件的遗留效应，但这种时间滞后动态的时间范围仍然未知。在这里，我们开发了一种非平衡物种分布模型（SDM）方法，量化了必须考虑的时间范围，以捕获给定时间序列的过去环境条件对物种当前分布的95%的影响。我们将这种方法应用于92种欧洲森林鸟类的分布，以响应过去森林覆盖和气候变化的轨迹。我们发现，95%的物种的非平衡SDMs优于传统SDMs。非均衡sdm表明，过去全球变化的影响前所未有地持久（平均滞后时间范围为9至231年）。该框架有助于放宽传统SDMs的平衡假设，并改善未来对全球变化下生物多样性再分配的预测。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecology Letters 环境科学-生态学

CiteScore

17.60

自引率

3.40%

发文量

201

审稿时长

1.8 months

期刊介绍： Ecology Letters serves as a platform for the rapid publication of innovative research in ecology. It considers manuscripts across all taxa, biomes, and geographic regions, prioritizing papers that investigate clearly stated hypotheses. The journal publishes concise papers of high originality and general interest, contributing to new developments in ecology. Purely descriptive papers and those that only confirm or extend previous results are discouraged.