Burden of Intracerebral Hemorrhage in Asia from 1990 to 2030: A Population-Based Study.

Abstract

Background: Intracerebral hemorrhage represents a critical subtype of stroke, imposing substantial social and economic challenges. Considering the considerable impact of intracerebral hemorrhage in Asia and the absence of studies detailing its epidemiological features, the aim of this study was to elucidate the temporal trends and distribution characteristics of intracerebral hemorrhage in Asia from 1990 to 2021, as well as to forecast the future burden.

Methods: The data derived from Global Disease Burden Study 2021 were used to investigate the age-standardized rates and absolute numbers of incident intracerebral hemorrhage cases and related deaths in Asia across genders, age groups, and geographical locations. An estimated annual percentage change was estimated to represent temporal trends, and an autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to forecast the future burden.

Results: In Asia, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of intracerebral hemorrhage per 100,000 population have declined from 1990 to 2021, despite a continuous increase in the absolute numbers, which exhibit significant heterogeneity across different geographical locations. In terms of gender, males experience a greater burden of intracerebral hemorrhage compared to females, and the impact of risk factors on disability-adjusted life years of intracerebral hemorrhage varies. In comparison to the figures observed in 2021, our forecasts indicate a rise in the burden of intracerebral hemorrhage in Asia.

Conclusions: The study offers an extensive depiction of the epidemiological features of intracerebral hemorrhage in Asia spanning from 1990 to 2021 while also outlining the diverse trajectories of the impending burden of this condition in the region. Comprehending the expected increase in disease burden can aid in formulating tailored strategies to tackle upcoming challenges.