Local Climate Might Amplify Economic and Environmental Impacts of Electric Vehicles in China

IF 10.8 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

环境科学与技术 Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI:10.1021/acs.est.4c09638

Yijing Zhu, Xiang Liu, Yifan Liu, Lina Liu, Haotian Zheng, Haikun Wang

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Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial for addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change and air pollution. The multiaspect benefits of EVs are highly dependent on local climate conditions, yet the impacts of regional heterogeneity in the context of future climate change remain unclear. Here, we develop a systemic modeling framework integrating fleet modeling, emission projection, index decomposition analysis, and detailed cost assessment to identify local drivers and potential trade-offs behind electrification. Our findings reveal substantial regional variations in EV charging costs, ranging from 2.6 to 3.6 USD/100km. By 2030, EVs could constitute 54 to 96% of regional vehicle sales, reducing China’s CO₂ emissions by 40.3 Tg and NOx emissions by 20.8 Gg compared to 2020 levels. Climate change might amplify the impacts of EVs, potentially reducing national energy consumption by 1–2% toward 2060, particularly by alleviating winter-related battery performance degradation. Our results highlight tailoring strategies to subregional conditions and recommend accelerating electrification to maximize environmental and economic cobenefits under global warming.

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当地气候可能会放大电动汽车在中国的经济和环境影响

电动汽车（ev）对于解决气候变化和空气污染交织的挑战至关重要。电动汽车的多方面效益高度依赖于当地气候条件，但未来气候变化背景下区域异质性的影响尚不清楚。在这里，我们开发了一个系统的建模框架，集成了车队建模、排放预测、指数分解分析和详细的成本评估，以确定当地驱动因素和电气化背后的潜在权衡。我们的研究结果显示，电动汽车充电成本的地区差异很大，从2.6美元到3.6美元/100公里不等。到2030年，电动汽车将占区域汽车销量的54%至96%，与2020年相比，中国的二氧化碳排放量将减少40.3 Tg，氮氧化物排放量将减少20.8 Gg。气候变化可能会放大电动汽车的影响，到2060年，特别是通过缓解与冬季相关的电池性能下降，可能会使全国能源消耗减少1-2%。我们的研究结果强调了针对分区域条件的定制策略，并建议在全球变暖的情况下加速电气化，以最大限度地提高环境和经济效益。

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来源期刊

环境科学与技术环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

17.50

自引率

9.60%

发文量

12359

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T) is a co-sponsored academic and technical magazine by the Hubei Provincial Environmental Protection Bureau and the Hubei Provincial Academy of Environmental Sciences. Environmental Science & Technology (ES&T) holds the status of Chinese core journals, scientific papers source journals of China, Chinese Science Citation Database source journals, and Chinese Academic Journal Comprehensive Evaluation Database source journals. This publication focuses on the academic field of environmental protection, featuring articles related to environmental protection and technical advancements.