Social contact patterns and their impact on the transmission of respiratory pathogens in rural China

Abstract

Introduction

Social contact patterns significantly influence the transmission dynamics of respiratory pathogens. Previous surveys have quantified human social contact patterns, yielding heterogeneous results across different locations. However, significant gaps remain in understanding social contact patterns in rural areas of China.

Methods

We conducted a pioneering study to quantify social contact patterns in Anhua County, Hunan Province, China, from June to October 2021, when there were minimal coronavirus disease-related restrictions in the area. Additionally, we simulated the epidemics under different assumptions regarding the relative transmission risks of various contact types (e.g., indoor versus outdoor, and physical versus non-physical).

Results

Participants reported an average of 12.0 contacts per day (95% confidence interval: 11.3–12.6), with a significantly higher number of indoor contacts compared to outdoor contacts. The number of contacts was associated with various socio-demographic characteristics, including age, education level, income, household size, and travel patterns. Contact patterns were assortative by age and varied based on the type of contact (e.g., physical versus non-physical). The reproduction number, daily incidence, and infection attack rate of simulated epidemics were remarkably stable.

Discussion

We found many intergenerational households and contacts that pose challenges in preventing and controlling infections among the elderly in rural China. Our study also underscores the importance of integrating various types of contact pattern data into epidemiological models and provides guidance to public health authorities and other major stakeholders in preparing and responding to infectious disease threats in rural China.