Examining Changes in Fatal Violence Against Women After Bail Reform in New Jersey

Abstract

Introduction

Cash bail reforms that end pretrial detention owing to the inability to afford bail have been highly debated across the U.S. A major concern cited by bail reform opponents is that reducing pretrial detention will increase community violence, particularly violence against women. The objective of this study was to assess whether New Jersey's cash bail reform was associated with changes in rates of fatal violence against women.

Methods

This study used synthetic control methods to evaluate the impact of bail reform on the rates of fatal violence against women in New Jersey compared with that in a weighted combination of 21 control states with no bail reform from 2015–2019. Outcome data were from the National Violent Death Reporting System and included intimate partner violence–related homicides, pregnancy-associated homicides, and overall homicides of adult women. Outcomes were measured for all adult women and within racialized groups. Analyses were performed in 2024.

Results

There were no significant changes in the rates of intimate partner violence–related homicide (average treatment effect on the treated= −0.11 deaths per 100,000 women, p=0.1), pregnancy-associated homicide (0.28 deaths per 100,000 births, p=0.8), and overall homicide (−0.03 deaths per 100,000, p=0.1) during the postpolicy period. There were also no significant changes within racialized groups.

Conclusions

Violence against women and mass incarceration are urgent and interconnected public health crises. These findings demonstrate the potential for policies to reduce the number of people incarcerated before trial without increasing fatal violence against women. Addressing these public health crises requires holistic structural interventions, such as housing and economic support, that reduce violence without criminalization.