Predictive Value of Age, Creatinine, and Ejection Fraction I and II Scores for Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Isolated On-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Study.

Abstract

Objectives: This study evaluated the predictive performance of age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) I and II scores for the development of postoperative atrial fibrillation (PoAF) after isolated on-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery and compared them with a novel nomogram model developed for PoAF prediction.

Subjects and methods: This retrospective multicenter study involved 511 patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG. Their ACEF scores were calculated, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a nomogram model. The discriminative performance of the ACEF scores and the novel nomogram model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results: Of the 511 patients, 169 (33.1%) developed PoAF. The ACEF I and II scores showed moderate discriminative ability (AUC = 0.642 and 0.647, respectively), with no significant difference between them (p = 0.787). Logistic regression analyses identified age, preoperative hemoglobin levels, emergency procedure, chronic kidney disease or need for dialysis, preoperative β-blocker use, preoperative angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker use, inotrope requirement, postoperative stroke, and postoperative potassium levels as independent predictors of PoAF. The novel nomogram model demonstrated greater predictive ability than the ACEF scores (AUC = 0.742, p < 0.001).

Conclusion: ACEF scores could be helpful risk stratification tools for PoAF after on-pump CABG procedures. Additional validation studies are required to confirm their clinical utility in diverse surgical procedures and patient populations.