Ecological Risks and Patterns Associated With Land Use/Cover Changes Along the Belt and Road Initiative Routes

Abstract

This study aims to uncover the characteristics of land use/cover (LULC) changes over a macro‐scale and long‐term period, as well as to assess their associated ecological risks. LULC changes are closely tied to ecological and environmental processes such as climate change, biodiversity, soil conservation, and water purification. With global population growth and urbanization, LULC changes have left a significant ecological footprint. To achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals, understanding the negative impacts of LULC changes is essential. This study employs GIS spatial models to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of LULC changes in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries post‐BRI proposal, using remote sensing monitoring and the InVEST model. During the ancient Silk Road period, living and production spaces occupied only 2.15% of the area. By 2013, this had expanded to 12.98% due to agricultural land growth, notably in central India and the Eastern European Plain. From 2013 to 2021, living and production spaces continued to increase, while ecological spaces decreased, with notable expansions in southeastern coastal China, Java, and the Mediterranean. Post‐BRI, LULC changes led to the decreased quality risks of landscape fragmentation, carbon emissions, and nitrogen eutrophication, but increased the quality risks of habitat quality degradation, soil erosion, and phosphorus eutrophication.