Carbon peaking capacity of Chinese cities not overemphasizing the role of non-fossil energy utilization- A case study of the Yangtze River Delta Region and Northeast China

Abstract

Accelerating the achievement of peak carbon in cities is critical to mitigating climate change. Despite technological challenges and uncertainties in non-fossil energy utilization, assessing the carbon peaking capacity of cities without over-reliance on non-fossil fuels can clarify the ease of achieving carbon peaks based on regional socioeconomic development. This study calculates the carbon peak capacity index (CPCI) of cities across economic, social, energy, and technological aspects, analyses the classification and ranking of cities’ carbon peaking capacity by TOPSIS and K-means, and forecasts capacity based on urban planning and policies. An analysis of 61 cities in Northeast China (NE) and the Yangtze River Delta (YR), with economic disparities, found: (1) from 1997 to 2021, both regions' carbon peak capacity increased, but the gap widened post-2006, with NE cities lagging YR cities by about a decade by 2021. (2) In 1997, 28% of cities in NE were leading, 40% of cities in YR were leading, and 10 cities in both regions were leading; by 2021, 13.9% of NE cities were leading, and 60% of cities in YR were leading. (3) In YR, 44% of cities' CPCI was most influenced by GDP per capita from 1997-2035, while 33% in NE was affected by the tertiary industry's added value. Short-term priorities should promote green technological innovation, especially in high-carbon emission sectors. For the long term, focusing on industrial restructuring and transitioning economic development from high-speed to high quality is crucial to fundamentally enhancing carbon peaking capacity. This assessment provides a foundation for carbon-peaking assessments.