Influence of government policies, environmental concerns, and attitudes toward solar panel purchase intention

Abstract

The negative environmental impact of fossil fuel-based energy generation has led to the search for more sustainable alternatives, such as solar energy. Consequently, governments have begun to encourage its implementation. This article presents a structural equation model (SEM) evaluated using the partial least squares technique (PLS-SEM), integrating Government (GOV), Environmental Concern (ECO), Environmental Attitudes (EAT), and Environmental Intentions (EIN). These variables are connected through five hypotheses, statistically validated using data from 311 responses to a questionnaire administered to university students in Mexico, where this kind of research is scarce. A key contribution of this study is the combined use of PLS-SEM to establish causal relationships and system dynamics (SD) simulation to analyze the long-term behavior of these relationships over time. Findings indicate that GOV has a direct positive impact on ECO (β = 0.694, p < 0.001) and EAT (β = 0.175, p < 0.001). Additionally, ECO significantly influences EIN (β = 0.469, p < 0.001) and EAT (β = 0.625, p < 0.001), while EAT has a direct positive effect on EIN (β = 0.290, p < 0.001). The SD simulation suggests that with current trends, implementation levels of these variables could reach 100% over eleven years, although setting intermediate targets may lead to acceptable levels within five years. This PLS-SEM-SD integrated approach provides insights into policy design and educational strategies to accelerate solar energy adoption in emerging economies like Mexico.