Evaluation of shield-tunnel segment assembly quality using a copula model and numerical simulation

IF 9.6 1区工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY

Automation in Construction Pub Date : 2025-01-16 DOI:10.1016/j.autcon.2025.105976

Xiaohua Bao, Junhong Li, Jun Shen, Xiangsheng Chen, Zefan Huang, Hongzhi Cui

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The quality of shield-tunnel segment assembly is uncertain and quantifying the probabilistic coupling effects of these factors is challenging. This paper presents a method for assessing shield-tunnel segment quality using a copula model with numerical simulation. A two-dimensional joint probability-distribution model is developed to model influencing factors, establishing a reliability-based evaluation system for segment assembly quality. Key steps include tunnel section division, marginal and copula function selection, and reliability assessment, focusing on a large submarine-shield tunnel. A Monte Carlo simulation examines the impact of various copula models on reliability estimates, validating the proposed method. Key findings show that (1) the selection of marginal and copula functions significantly affects segment assembly quality and reliability, with the commonly used Gaussian copula not always being optimal, and (2) failure probabilities can vary by up to 84 times due to differing construction conditions and geological factors across tunnel sections.

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来源期刊

Automation in Construction 工程技术-工程：土木

CiteScore

19.20

自引率

16.50%

发文量

563

审稿时长

8.5 months

期刊介绍： Automation in Construction is an international journal that focuses on publishing original research papers related to the use of Information Technologies in various aspects of the construction industry. The journal covers topics such as design, engineering, construction technologies, and the maintenance and management of constructed facilities. The scope of Automation in Construction is extensive and covers all stages of the construction life cycle. This includes initial planning and design, construction of the facility, operation and maintenance, as well as the eventual dismantling and recycling of buildings and engineering structures.