Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer mortality and air pollution exposure in Tuscany, Italy: Bayesian Health Impact Assessment and Global Sensitivity Analysis on a sub-regional scale

IF 7.6 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Pollution Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2025.125682

Michela Baccini, Federico Pirona, Laura Grisotto, Giulia Cereda, Alessio Lachi, Miriam Levi, Giulia Carreras

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Outdoor air pollution is a significant risk factor for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer. This study employs a Bayesian approach to evaluate TBL cancer mortality due to air pollution in Tuscany, Central Italy, in 2023. Using locally validated data, we assessed the impact of fine particulate matter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO

_{2}

$_{2}$ ) in terms of attributable deaths and years of life lost (YLL). Our three-step methodology included: (1) Bayesian modeling to derive posterior distributions for life expectancy, pollution levels, mortality rates, and exposure-response functions (inputs); (2) Monte Carlo simulations to propagate uncertainty from the inputs to the impact metrics (outputs); and (3) Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to quantify the influence of each input on the outputs. The largest impact was estimated for PM_2.5, with 432 attributable deaths (50% CrI: 174; 705) and 6,500 YLL (50% CrI: 2,624; 10,613) in the region due to annual average concentrations exceeding the WHO threshold of

5 μ g

$5 μ g$ /m

^{3}

$^{3}$ . Central districts, with higher exposure levels, were particularly affected, reporting 14 attributable deaths and 207 attributable YLL per 100,000 inhabitants. The GSA indicated that uncertainty in exposure-response functions and annual average concentrations of air pollutants significantly affected outcomes, highlighting the need to strengthen the regional air quality network and conduct local studies to address effects heterogeneity. Our findings highlight the value of high-quality local health assessments for identifying critical areas, setting intervention priorities, and informing context-specific action plans.

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来源期刊

Environmental Pollution 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

16.00

自引率

6.70%

发文量

2082

审稿时长

2.9 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Pollution is an international peer-reviewed journal that publishes high-quality research papers and review articles covering all aspects of environmental pollution and its impacts on ecosystems and human health. Subject areas include, but are not limited to: • Sources and occurrences of pollutants that are clearly defined and measured in environmental compartments, food and food-related items, and human bodies; • Interlinks between contaminant exposure and biological, ecological, and human health effects, including those of climate change; • Contaminants of emerging concerns (including but not limited to antibiotic resistant microorganisms or genes, microplastics/nanoplastics, electronic wastes, light, and noise) and/or their biological, ecological, or human health effects; • Laboratory and field studies on the remediation/mitigation of environmental pollution via new techniques and with clear links to biological, ecological, or human health effects; • Modeling of pollution processes, patterns, or trends that is of clear environmental and/or human health interest; • New techniques that measure and examine environmental occurrences, transport, behavior, and effects of pollutants within the environment or the laboratory, provided that they can be clearly used to address problems within regional or global environmental compartments.