Health and associated economic benefits of reduced air pollution and increased physical activity from climate change policies in the UK

IF 10.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environment International Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2025.109283

Heather Walton , David Dajnak , Mike Holland , Dimitris Evangelopoulos , Dylan Wood , Christian Brand , Nosha Assareh , Gregor Stewart , Andrew Beddows , Shawn YC Lee , Daniela Fecht , Yunzhe Liu , Bethan Davies , Anna Goodman , Tuan Vu , Sean Beevers

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Abstract

Climate change policies do not always include analysis of air quality and physical activity co-benefits. We compared business as usual (BAU) UK policy with Net Zero scenarios from the UK Climate Change Committee for road transport and building sectors. We quantified and monetised the health benefits of the Balanced Net Zero (BNZP) and Widespread Innovation (WI) Pathways.

Air pollution concentrations were predicted using Chemical Transport Models and population-weighted. Shifts from car to walking and cycling for transport were converted to METhrs/week. Literature concentration–response functions were combined with baseline rates from routine statistics/other sources. Mortality and multi-morbidity impacts were calculated using lifetable analysis, and an incidence/prevalence model from 2019 to 2154 (a lifetime after 2050). Monetary values were applied to the results.

The BNZP policy compared with BAU gave 4.9 (95 % confidence interval 1.0–9.0) million life-years gained (LYG) (UK population, to 2154), including 1.1 (0.7–1.6) million LYG from active travel improvements. Avoided COPD and childhood asthma cases were 201,000 (150,000 – 250,000) and 192,000 (64,600–311,000). The monetised air quality morbidity benefits (£52.1 (36.4 – 67.8) billion) substantially added to the air quality mortality benefits (£77.9 (42.9 to 90.8) billion). Total yearly monetised benefits for BNZP vs BAU summed to 2154 (air pollution/active travel) were £153 (122 to 184) billion (core); 278 (228 to 334) billion (+outcomes with weaker evidence).

Adding the effects of air pollution reductions on disease incidence, with effects of air pollution and physical activity on mortality, increases the monetised benefits that may justify Net Zero policies in cost-benefit analysis.

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英国气候变化政策带来的减少空气污染和增加体力活动的健康和相关经济效益

气候变化政策并不总是包括对空气质量和体育活动共同效益的分析。我们将英国政策与英国气候变化委员会提出的道路运输和建筑行业的净零情景进行了比较。我们对平衡净零（BNZP）和广泛创新（WI）途径的健康效益进行了量化和货币化。利用化学输运模型和人口加权预测空气污染浓度。从开车到步行和骑自行车的交通方式转变为每周METhrs。文献集中-反应函数与常规统计数据/其他来源的基线率相结合。使用生命表分析和2019年至2154年（2050年后的一生）的发病率/患病率模型计算死亡率和多发病影响。货币价值被应用于结果。与BAU相比，BNZP政策获得了4.9（95 %置信区间为1.0-9.0）百万生命年（LYG）（英国人口，至2154），其中110（0.7 - 160）万LYG来自积极的旅行改善。避免COPD和儿童哮喘病例分别为201,000（150,000 - 250,000）和192,000（311,000-64,600）。货币化的空气质量发病率收益（521亿英镑（364 - 678亿英镑））大大增加了空气质量死亡率收益（779亿英镑（429 - 908亿英镑））。BNZP与BAU的年度货币化总收益总计为2154（空气污染/主动出行），为153（122至1840）亿英镑（核心）；278（228 - 3340）亿（+证据较弱的结果）。减少空气污染对疾病发病率的影响，加上空气污染和体育活动对死亡率的影响，增加了货币化效益，可以在成本效益分析中证明净零政策是合理的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environment International 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

21.90

自引率

3.40%

发文量

734

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Health publishes manuscripts focusing on critical aspects of environmental and occupational medicine, including studies in toxicology and epidemiology, to illuminate the human health implications of exposure to environmental hazards. The journal adopts an open-access model and practices open peer review. It caters to scientists and practitioners across all environmental science domains, directly or indirectly impacting human health and well-being. With a commitment to enhancing the prevention of environmentally-related health risks, Environmental Health serves as a public health journal for the community and scientists engaged in matters of public health significance concerning the environment.