Reconstructing Tropical Cyclone Activity from Sedimentary Archives

IF 11.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS
Jeffrey P. Donnelly
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The brevity of the instrumental record limits our knowledge of tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal to longer timescales and hampers our ability to diagnose climatic controls. Sedimentary archives containing event beds provide essential data on tropical cyclone activity over centuries and millennia. This review highlights the advantages and limitations of this approach and how these reconstructions have illuminated patterns of tropical cyclone activity and potential climate drivers over the last millennium. Key elements to developing high-quality reconstructions include confident attribution of event beds to tropical cyclones, assessing the potential role of other mechanisms, and evaluating the potential influence of geomorphic changes, sea-level variations, and sediment supply on a settings’ susceptibility to event bed deposition. Millennium-long histories of severe tropical cyclone occurrence are now available from many locations in the western North Atlantic and western North Pacific,revealing clear regional shifts in activity likely related to intervals of large-scale ocean-atmosphere reorganization. Prior to significant human influence in Earth's climate, natural climate variability dramatically altered patterns of tropical cyclone activity. For some regions (e.g., The Bahamas and the Marshall Islands), earlier intervals of tropical cyclone activity exceeded what humans have experienced during the recent period of instrumental measurements (∼1850 CE–present). Risk assessments based on the short instrumental record likely underestimate the threat posed by tropical cyclones in many regions. Changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation associated with the Little Ice Age (∼1400–1800 CE) resulted in significant regional changes in tropical cyclone activity. Given the past sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to climate change, we should anticipate regional shifts in tropical cyclone activity in response to ongoing anthropogenic warming of the planet.
从沉积档案重建热带气旋活动
仪器记录的短暂性限制了我们对热带气旋活动的几十年代际认识到更长的时间尺度,并妨碍了我们诊断气候控制的能力。包含事件层的沉积档案提供了几个世纪和几千年来热带气旋活动的重要数据。这篇综述强调了这种方法的优点和局限性,以及这些重建如何揭示了过去一千年热带气旋活动模式和潜在的气候驱动因素。开发高质量重建的关键要素包括:将事件床归因于热带气旋,评估其他机制的潜在作用,以及评估地貌变化、海平面变化和沉积物供应对事件床沉积易感性的潜在影响。在北大西洋西部和北太平洋西部的许多地方,强热带气旋发生的数千年历史现在可以得到,揭示了活动的明显区域变化,可能与大规模海洋-大气重组的间隔有关。▪在人类对地球气候产生重大影响之前,自然气候变异极大地改变了热带气旋活动的模式。▪在一些地区(例如,巴哈马群岛和马绍尔群岛),早期热带气旋活动的间隔时间超过了人类在最近一段仪器测量期间(至1850年至今)所经历的时间。▪基于短期仪器记录的风险评估可能低估了热带气旋在许多地区造成的威胁。▪与小冰期(公元1400-1800年)相关的大气和海洋环流的变化导致热带气旋活动的显著区域变化。▪考虑到过去热带气旋活动对气候变化的敏感性,我们应该预测热带气旋活动的区域变化,以应对持续的地球人为变暖。
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来源期刊
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 地学天文-地球科学综合
CiteScore
25.10
自引率
0.00%
发文量
25
期刊介绍: Since its establishment in 1973, the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences has been dedicated to providing comprehensive coverage of advancements in the field. This esteemed publication examines various aspects of earth and planetary sciences, encompassing climate, environment, geological hazards, planet formation, and the evolution of life. To ensure wider accessibility, the latest volume of the journal has transitioned from a gated model to open access through the Subscribe to Open program by Annual Reviews. Consequently, all articles published in this volume are now available under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license.
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