Risk factors for the incursion of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus into poultry and other captive bird holdings in Denmark from 2020 to 2023: A case-control study
Helene Ane Jensen , Søren Saxmose Nielsen , Carsten Thure Kirkeby , Matthew Denwood , Lene Jung Kjær , Yuan Liang , Charlotte Kristiane Hjulsager , Anette Ella Boklund
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a major concern in terms of animal and human health. Between October 2020 and September 2023, there were 36 HPAI outbreaks detected in poultry and other captive birds in Denmark. However, it is often not possible to determine the exact route of introduction. We conducted a case-control study to compare the odds of exposure to a range of potential risk factors for HPAI virus incursion into Danish poultry or other captive bird holdings with HPAI outbreaks (cases) and with no HPAI outbreaks (controls) during the HPAI epidemiological seasons 2020/2021, 2021/2022 and 2022/2023. The owners of 38 % of the eligible case holdings and 45 % of the eligible control holdings declined to participate, suggesting that HPAI virus infection is a sensitive subject for some owners. The study population included 18 cases and 34 controls. We collected data primarily through questionnaire-based interviews and estimated odds ratios (OR) within a Bayesian framework using a Beta conjugate prior to define the odds directly, with Monte Carlo integration from these posterior distributions of odds to estimate the relevant OR with 95 % credible intervals (CI) and Bayesian p-values. The results indicated that the odds of observing wild waterfowl or gulls on the roof or around farm buildings compared to observing none within 500 m of the holding was higher for case holdings (OR: 18.7, 95 % CI: 3.1–148, p: 0.022). This information can be used for future risk-based monitoring, biosecurity management and placement of captive bird holdings.
期刊介绍:
Preventive Veterinary Medicine is one of the leading international resources for scientific reports on animal health programs and preventive veterinary medicine. The journal follows the guidelines for standardizing and strengthening the reporting of biomedical research which are available from the CONSORT, MOOSE, PRISMA, REFLECT, STARD, and STROBE statements. The journal focuses on:
Epidemiology of health events relevant to domestic and wild animals;
Economic impacts of epidemic and endemic animal and zoonotic diseases;
Latest methods and approaches in veterinary epidemiology;
Disease and infection control or eradication measures;
The "One Health" concept and the relationships between veterinary medicine, human health, animal-production systems, and the environment;
Development of new techniques in surveillance systems and diagnosis;
Evaluation and control of diseases in animal populations.