Trypanosomosis and Transhumance: Contributions to Contemporary Conflicts Between Farmers and Herdsmen Along the Tsetse Fly Belts: Mathematical Modeling and Systematic Field Analysis Approach

Abstract

Conflicts within the tsetse fly belt revealed a strong correlation between the dynamics of bovine trypanosomosis and the insurgency involving farmers and herders in Nigeria and parts of West Africa. This study examined the history, causes and influence of farmers-herdsmen conflicts on banditry, terrorism and food security as it relates to the epidemiology of African animal trypanosomosis (AAT). A combination of literature database searches, semi-structured questionnaires, and mathematical modeling was employed. The study found that transhumance contributes significantly to conflicts between farmers and herdsmen. An average of 6.46 persons per attack were reported between 2005 and 2021. Only 8.4\(\%\) (95\(\%\) CI: 5.0\(-\)12.9) of farmers and 18.2\(\%\) (95\(\%\) CI: 12.4\(-\)25.4) of herdsmen have engaged in conflict resolution efforts. The study shows that both conflict and the spread of trypanosomosis can be effectively controlled when \(R_0 < 1\), ensuring that the sub-population remains in the basin of attraction of the trypanosomosis-conflict-free equilibrium (\(T_{0c}\)). The partial derivative of the basic reproduction number, \(R_0\), with respect to improved conflict resolution, suggests that halting transhumance can prevent a portion of the cattle recruitment rate (\(\Lambda_c\)) from becoming infected with AAT. Climate change exacerbates these issues, leading to settlement and resettlement strategies within the fly belt regions. The model indicates that the basic reproduction number can only be reduced to less than one (\(R_0 < 1\)) to become globally asymptotically stable if there is effective conflict resolution involving both farmers and herders. The study advocates for the establishment of ranching in tsetse-free zones with adequate social amenities, improved marketing strategies for animals and animal products led by government agencies through public-private partnerships, the banning of open grazing, and strict enforcement of policies against violators.