Vaccination strategies for Ebola in the democratic republic of Congo: the who-Ebola modeling collaboration

IF 4.8 2区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Pub Date : 2025-01-11 DOI:10.1016/j.ijid.2025.107779

Marco Ajelli , Jean-Jacques Muyembe , Alhassane Touré , Abdourahamane Diallo , Maria Litvinova , Stefano Merler , Sabué Mulangu , Aminata Bagayoko , Aissatou Bah , Ibrahima Bah , Aissatou Barry , Fatoumata Barry , Mohamed Chérif , Doussou Condé , Alpha A. Diallo , Fatoumata Diallo , Mory Diakité , Kassié Doré , Koundouno A. Mapan , Thérèse Koundouno , Ira M. Longini Jr.

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objectives

Assess the effectiveness of ring vaccination in controlling an Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Methods

This analysis focuses on two areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, Beni and Butembo/Katwa, which were affected during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak. To simulate Ebola virus transmission, we used a spatially explicit agent-based model with households, health care facilities, and Ebola treatment units. Model parameters were calibrated using data collected under the ring-vaccination expanded-access protocol implemented during the outbreak. The model was used to estimate the impact of the deployed ring vaccination strategy, compared to what would have happened if there had been no ring vaccination. The impact of alternative vaccination strategies (mass vaccination, targeted geographic vaccination, and ring-plus) was evaluated as well.

Results

Compared to a hypothetical scenario where vaccination was not implemented, ring vaccination was estimated to have averted 54.3% (SD, 32.5%) and 62.7% (SD, 23.2%) of potential cases in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. Under ring vaccination, the average number of averted cases per 1000 vaccine doses administered was 15.1 (SD, 16.8) and 27.8 (SD, 22.9), in Beni and Butembo/Katwa, respectively. In terms of number of averted cases per vaccine dose, ring vaccination was estimated to be more efficient than any of the other evaluated vaccination strategies.

Conclusion

Despite some level of social instability, ring vaccination with the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine was highly effective during the 2018-2020 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As compared to alternative vaccination strategies, ring vaccination was estimated to be the most efficient.

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刚果民主共和国的埃博拉疫苗接种战略：世卫组织-埃博拉建模合作。

目的：评估环形疫苗接种在刚果民主共和国控制埃博拉病毒爆发方面的有效性。方法：本研究以2018-2020年埃博拉疫情期间受影响的刚果民主共和国贝尼和布滕博/卡特瓦两个地区为研究对象。为了模拟埃博拉病毒的传播，我们使用了一个空间明确的基于主体的模型，包括家庭、卫生保健设施和埃博拉治疗单位。使用在疫情期间实施的环接种扩大获取协议下收集的数据对模型参数进行了校准。该模型用于估计部署的环形疫苗接种策略的影响，并将其与没有环形疫苗接种的情况进行比较。还评估了替代疫苗接种策略（大规模疫苗接种、有针对性的地理疫苗接种和环加）的影响。结果：与未接种疫苗的假设情况相比，估计在贝尼和布滕博/卡特瓦分别避免了54.3% （SD, 32.5%）和62.7% （SD, 23.2%）的潜在病例。在环形疫苗接种下，贝尼和布滕博/卡特瓦的平均每1000剂疫苗避免病例数分别为15.1（标准差，16.8）和27.8（标准差，22.9）。就每剂疫苗避免的病例数量而言，环形疫苗接种估计比任何其他评估的疫苗接种战略都更有效。结论：尽管存在一定程度的社会不稳定，但在刚果民主共和国2018-2020年埃博拉疫情期间，接种rVSV-ZEBOV疫苗的环形疫苗非常有效。与其他疫苗接种策略相比，环形疫苗接种估计是最有效的。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Infectious Diseases 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

18.90

自引率

2.40%

发文量

1020

审稿时长

30 days

期刊介绍： International Journal of Infectious Diseases (IJID) Publisher: International Society for Infectious Diseases Publication Frequency: Monthly Type: Peer-reviewed, Open Access Scope: Publishes original clinical and laboratory-based research. Reports clinical trials, reviews, and some case reports. Focuses on epidemiology, clinical diagnosis, treatment, and control of infectious diseases. Emphasizes diseases common in under-resourced countries.