A Nomogram to Predict Mortality in Patients With Severe Oral and Maxillofacial Space Infections.

IF 2.9 3区医学 Q1 DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE

Oral diseases Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI:10.1111/odi.15256

Hanyi Zhu, Wentao Qian, Yanxiang Li, Zhiyuan He, Huan Shi, Baoli Wang

{"title":"A Nomogram to Predict Mortality in Patients With Severe Oral and Maxillofacial Space Infections.","authors":"Hanyi Zhu, Wentao Qian, Yanxiang Li, Zhiyuan He, Huan Shi, Baoli Wang","doi":"10.1111/odi.15256","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Objective: This study aimed to explore the risk factors for death in extremely severe oral and maxillofacial space infection (OMSI) patients and to use these findings to establish a nomogram model that can be used to predict individual patient prognosis.Methods: Patients with extremely severe OMSI seen between 2020 and 2024 were enrolled (N = 102). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyse the associations between clinical factors and the risk of death, and a nomogram was developed to visualise the model. Model accuracy and clinical utility of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results: Six variables were associated with death. Three independent risk factors for death were identified by multivariate logistic regression: history of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (OR: 7.716; 95% CI: 0.988-52.122; p = 0.050), D-dimer (OR: 1.162; 95% CI: 1.048-1.28; p = 0.004), and serum creatinine level (OR: 1.011; 95% CI: 1.002-1.020; p = 0.018). The nomogram had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.819.Conclusion: A history of RA, D-dimer and serum creatinine are independent prognostic factors for overall survival in OMSI patients. The nomogram model showed good concordance and accuracy.","PeriodicalId":19615,"journal":{"name":"Oral diseases","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oral diseases","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/odi.15256","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DENTISTRY, ORAL SURGERY & MEDICINE","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to explore the risk factors for death in extremely severe oral and maxillofacial space infection (OMSI) patients and to use these findings to establish a nomogram model that can be used to predict individual patient prognosis.

Methods: Patients with extremely severe OMSI seen between 2020 and 2024 were enrolled (N = 102). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyse the associations between clinical factors and the risk of death, and a nomogram was developed to visualise the model. Model accuracy and clinical utility of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: Six variables were associated with death. Three independent risk factors for death were identified by multivariate logistic regression: history of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) (OR: 7.716; 95% CI: 0.988-52.122; p = 0.050), D-dimer (OR: 1.162; 95% CI: 1.048-1.28; p = 0.004), and serum creatinine level (OR: 1.011; 95% CI: 1.002-1.020; p = 0.018). The nomogram had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.819.

Conclusion: A history of RA, D-dimer and serum creatinine are independent prognostic factors for overall survival in OMSI patients. The nomogram model showed good concordance and accuracy.

查看原文本刊更多论文

预测严重口腔颌面间隙感染患者死亡率的Nomogram。

目的：本研究旨在探讨极重度口腔颌面间隙感染（OMSI）患者死亡的危险因素，并利用这些发现建立可用于预测患者个体预后的nomogram模型。方法：纳入2020年至2024年期间出现的极严重OMSI患者（N = 102）。单变量和多变量逻辑回归用于分析临床因素与死亡风险之间的关联，并开发了nomogram来可视化模型。采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线、校正曲线和决策曲线分析（DCA）评价模型准确性和nomogram临床应用价值。结果：6个变量与死亡相关。多因素logistic回归分析确定了3个独立的死亡危险因素：类风湿关节炎（RA）病史(OR: 7.716；95% ci: 0.988-52.122；p = 0.050)， d -二聚体(OR: 1.162；95% ci: 1.048-1.28；p = 0.004)，血清肌酐水平(OR: 1.011；95% ci: 1.002-1.020；p = 0.018)。nomogram的受者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.819。结论：RA病史、d -二聚体和血清肌酐是影响OMSI患者总生存的独立预后因素。模态图模型具有良好的一致性和准确性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Oral diseases 医学-牙科与口腔外科

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

5.30%

发文量

325

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Oral Diseases is a multidisciplinary and international journal with a focus on head and neck disorders, edited by leaders in the field, Professor Giovanni Lodi (Editor-in-Chief, Milan, Italy), Professor Stefano Petti (Deputy Editor, Rome, Italy) and Associate Professor Gulshan Sunavala-Dossabhoy (Deputy Editor, Shreveport, LA, USA). The journal is pre-eminent in oral medicine. Oral Diseases specifically strives to link often-isolated areas of dentistry and medicine through broad-based scholarship that includes well-designed and controlled clinical research, analytical epidemiology, and the translation of basic science in pre-clinical studies. The journal typically publishes articles relevant to many related medical specialties including especially dermatology, gastroenterology, hematology, immunology, infectious diseases, neuropsychiatry, oncology and otolaryngology. The essential requirement is that all submitted research is hypothesis-driven, with significant positive and negative results both welcomed. Equal publication emphasis is placed on etiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, prevention and treatment.