Global trends and risk factors in gastric cancer: a comprehensive analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and multi-omics data.

Abstract

Background: Gastric cancer (GC) remains a significant global health challenge. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze GC epidemiology and risk factors to inform prevention and intervention strategies. Methods: We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data, conducted 16 different machine learning (ML) models of NHANES data, performed Mendelian randomization (MR) studies on disease phenotypes, dietary preferences, microbiome, blood-based markers, and integrated differential gene expression and expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data from multiple cohorts to identify factors associated with GC risk. Results: Global age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (ASDR) for GC declined from 886.24 to 358.42 per 100,000 population between 1990 and 2030, with significant regional disparities. Despite this decline, total disability-adjusted life years show a concerning upward trend from 2015, rising from approximately 22.9 million to a projected 24.3 million by 2030. The slope index of inequality shifted from 87 in 1990 to -184 in 2021, indicating a reversal in GC burden distribution, with higher ASDR now associated with lower socio-demographic index countries. The ML models analysis identified higher levels of clinical characteristics such as phosphorus, calcium, eosinophils percent, and triglycerides, as well as lower levels of iron and monocyte percent, may be associated with an increased risk of GC. MR analyses revealed causal associations between GC risk and disease phenotypes such as Helicobacter pylori infection, chronic gastritis, obesity, depression, and dietary preferences such as dairy and processed meats. Gut microbiome analysis showed associations with microbiome such as Phascolarctobacterium and Ruminococcaceae species. Blood-based markers analysis identified protective and risk effects for cortisol, glutamate, nicotinamide, Natural Killer %lymphocyte, CD4-CD8- T cell Absolute Count, Phosphatidylcholine (16:0_18:1), and Interleukin-1-alpha. Integrated genomic analysis identified 10 genes significantly associated with GC risk, with strong evidence for colocalization in genes such as CCR6 and PILRB. Conclusions: This systematic analysis reveals complex global trends in GC burden and identifies novel clinical, disease phenotypes, dietary preferences, microbial, blood-based, and genetic risk factors. These findings provide potential targets for improved risk stratification, prevention, and intervention strategies to reduce the global burden of GC.