Conditional earthquake probabilities along the North Anatolian fault zone based on inverse Gaussian against lognormal distribution

Abstract

This study offers a comprehensive forecast of conditional earthquake recurrence probabilities in the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), utilizing advanced statistical models and temporal analyses, aiming to discern the likelihood of future earthquakes. We sought to contribute insights into seismic hazard assessment by analyzing earthquakes (M_W ≥ 4.0) from 1900–2022, employing Inverse Gaussian (aka Brownian Passage Time) and Lognormal distribution models, categorizing the NAFZ into ten seismic zones. Rigorous model fitness assessments were conducted, including Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, Kolmogorov–Smirnov, and Anderson–Darling tests. Conditional probabilities were calculated across eleven temporal intervals (0–50 years) and eleven residual periods (1–50 years), starting on January 1, 2023, and extending into the future. Results reveal nuanced earthquake probabilities, highlighting a heterogeneous seismic hazard landscape. Probability forecasts surge within the initial five years and continue to rise for another five years, underscoring the spatiotemporal sensitivity and widespread earthquake hazard. The findings enhance the understanding of seismic hazard assessment, extending the future applicability potential to global seismic regions. Acknowledging uncertainties and relying on instrumental data, future research could explore more extensive areas and refined data sources, along with new modeling techniques, to enhance forecasting accuracy. The findings stress the need for earthquake preparedness throughout the study area, not only for the anticipated large earthquakes but especially for medium-magnitude earthquakes. This remark manifestly underscores the necessity to develop strategies to reduce possible damage and loss of life stemming from the collapse of non-engineered and rural building stock unevenly scattered along the NAFZ that remain vulnerable to moderate-magnitude earthquakes.