Anticipating Solar Flares

Abstract

Solar flares commonly have a “hot onset precursor event” (HOPE), detectable from soft X-ray observations. To detect this requires subtraction of pre-flare fluxes from the non-flaring Sun prior to the event, fitting an isothermal emission model to the flare excess fluxes by comparing the GOES passbands at 1 – 8 Å and 0.5 – 4 Å, and plotting the timewise evolution of the flare emission in a diagram of temperature vs. emission measure. The HOPE then appears as an initial “horizontal branch” in this diagram. It precedes the nonthermal impulsive phase of the flare and thus the flare peak in soft X-rays as well. We use this property to define a “flare anticipation index” (FAI), which can serve as an alert for observational programs aimed at solar flares based on near-real-time soft X-ray observations. This FAI gives lead times of a few minutes and produces very few false positive alerts, even for flare brightenings that are too weak to merit NOAA classification.