Accelerated River Meander Migration on the Tibetan Plateau Caused by Permafrost Thaw

Abstract

The migration of rivers in permafrost landscapes has critical implications for riverine infrastructure, ecosystem stability, and carbon cycling, yet its magnitude and underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we leverage four decadal satellite imagery, hydrological observations, and permafrost modeling to investigate meander migration dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau. Our data show that the migration rates of permafrost rivers have increased by 34.6% from 1987 to 2022, in response to the combined effects of increased discharge, riverbank destabilization driven by ground ice melt and extended thawing days (increased by 35 days). In contrast, rivers flowing across seasonally frozen ground exhibited a decline in migration rate by 11.1%, driven by vegetation greening and riverbank stabilization. In a future warming climate for the Tibetan Plateau, the migration rates of permafrost rivers are anticipated to further accelerate, potentially threatening riverine infrastructure safety and aquatic ecosystems, and intensifying the permafrost carbon cycle.