Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022.

Abstract

Background: COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has spread globally, presenting a significant public health challenge. Vaccination has played a critical role in reducing severe disease and deaths. However, the waning of immunity after vaccination and the emergence of immune-escape variants require the continuation of vaccination efforts, including booster doses, to maintain population immunity. This study models the dynamics of COVID-19 in the Basque Country, Spain, aiming to characterize the population's immunity profile and assess its impact on the severity of outbreaks from 2020 to 2022.

Methods: A SIR/DS model was developed to analyze the interplay of virus-specific and vaccine-induced immunity. The model includes three levels of immunity, with boosting effects from reinfection and/or vaccination. It was validated using empirical daily case data from the Basque Country. The model tracks shifts in immunity status and their effects on disease dynamics over time.

Results: The COVID-19 epidemic in the Basque Country progressed through three distinct phases, each shaped by dynamic interactions between virus transmission, public health interventions, and vaccination efforts. The initial phase was marked by a rapid surge in cases, followed by a decline due to strict public health measures, with a seroprevalence of $1.3\%$ . In the intermediate phase, multiple smaller outbreaks emerged as restrictions were relaxed and new variants, such as Alpha and Delta, appeared. During this period, reinfection rates reached $20\%$ , and seroprevalence increased to $32\%$ . The final phase, dominated by the Omicron variant, saw a significant rise in cases driven by waning immunity and the variant's high transmissibility. Notably, $34\%$ of infections during this phase occurred in the naive population, with seroprevalence peaking at $43\%$ . Across all phases, the infection of naive and unvaccinated individuals contributed significantly to the severity of outbreaks, emphasizing the critical role of vaccination in mitigating disease impact.

Conclusion: The findings underscore the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive public health strategies to mitigate the evolving epidemiological and immunological landscape of COVID-19. Dynamic interactions between immunity levels, reinfections, and vaccinations are critical in shaping outbreak severity and guiding evidence-based interventions.