Tropical cyclone risk for global ecosystems in a changing climate

IF 29.6 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-01-03 DOI:10.1038/s41558-024-02194-w

Chahan M. Kropf, Lisa Vaterlaus, David N. Bresch, Loïc Pellissier

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Abstract

Coastal ecosystems provide a range of services including erosion prevention, clean water provision and carbon sequestration. With climate change, the rapid change in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones may alter the composition of the ecosystems themselves potentially degrading the services they provide. Here we classify global ecoregions into dependent, resilient and vulnerable and show that a combined 9.4% of the surface of all terrestrial ecosystems is susceptible to transformation due to cyclone pattern changes between 1980–2017 and 2015–2050 under climate scenario SSP5-8.5 using the STORM model. Even for the most resilient ecosystems already experiencing winds >60 m s−1 regularly, the average interval between two storms is projected to decrease from 19 to 12 years which is potentially close to their recovery time. Our study advocates for a shift in the consideration of the tropical cyclone impact from immediate damage to effects on long-term natural recovery cycles. The authors model the impact of changing tropical cyclone activity on coastal ecosystems. Under SSP5-8.5, by 2050 nearly 10% of terrestrial ecosystems will be at risk from changing tropical cyclone frequency, threatening the recovery potential of even the most resilient ecoregions.

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气候变化对全球生态系统的热带气旋风险

沿海生态系统提供一系列服务，包括防止侵蚀、提供清洁水和固碳。随着气候变化，热带气旋频率和强度的迅速变化可能改变生态系统本身的组成，可能降低它们提供的服务。在此，我们将全球生态区域分为依赖型、弹性型和脆弱型，并使用STORM模型表明，在SSP5-8.5气候情景下，1980-2017年和2015-2050年期间，所有陆地生态系统中有9.4%的地表容易受到气旋模式变化的影响。即使是最具弹性的生态系统，已经经常经历60米/秒的大风，预计两次风暴之间的平均间隔也将从19年减少到12年，这可能接近它们的恢复时间。我们的研究主张将对热带气旋影响的考虑从直接损害转向对长期自然恢复周期的影响。

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来源期刊

Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

40.30

自引率

1.60%

发文量

267

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.