Long-term data reveal widespread phenological change across major US estuarine food webs

Abstract

Climate change is shifting the timing of organismal life-history events. Although consequential food-web mismatches can emerge if predators and prey shift at different rates, research on phenological shifts has traditionally focused on single trophic levels. Here, we analysed >2000 long-term, monthly time series of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and fish abundance or biomass for the San Francisco, Chesapeake, and Massachusetts bays. Phenological shifts occurred in over a quarter (28%) of the combined series across all three estuaries. However, phenological trends for many taxa (ca. 29–68%) did not track the changing environment. While planktonic taxa largely advanced their phenologies, fishes displayed broad patterns of both advanced and delayed timing of peak abundance. Overall, these divergent patterns illustrate the potential for climate-driven trophic mismatches. Our results suggest that even if signatures of global climate change differ locally, widespread phenological change has the potential to disrupt estuarine food webs.