The potential of rooftop photovoltaics to meet Dutch residential electricity demand under heat transition scenarios

Abstract

Rooftop photovoltaics (RPVs) are essential for advancing energy transition and achieving climate goals. However, there is limited understanding of their future potential at a granular geographical level and their potential to meet future electricity demand from buildings under different heat transition scenarios. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the RPV potential at the individual building level in the Netherlands, considering detailed building stock dynamics, renovation strategies, and heat transition scenarios. The results show that RPVs currently generate 3.86 TWh of electricity, with the potential to increase to 19.52 TWh. The total electricity demand of the residential building sector is about 27.26 TWh in 2020, which can increase significantly to 34.19-45.11 TWh by 2050, depending on heat pump penetration and renovation standards. RPVs alone can potentially meet about 43-57% of this electricity demand and save up to 11.32 Mt CO₂-eq in 2050 (26% of current operational carbon emissions) if public grid electricity could be replaced by RPV electricity. However, the actual contribution of RPVs to the reduction/decarbonization of household electricity is subject to large uncertainties due to both the momentary and seasonal mismatch between RPV supply and electricity demand. Future research could increase the temporal resolution of our model to better explore the real potential of RPVs for targeted electrification and decarbonization in the building sector.