The mechanism-specific injury mortality burden associated with heatwave in China in a warming world

IF 10.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environment International Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2024.109241

Jianxiong Hu , Shaoli Huang , Yulin Zhuo , Jianhua Zhang , Weiwei Gong , Guanhao He , Maigeng Zhou , Fangfang Zeng , Ruilin Meng , Tao Liu , Chunliang Zhou , Yize Xiao , Min Yu , Biao Huang , Guoxia Bai , Hua Guo , Wenjun Ma

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Abstract

Numerous studies have investigated the impact of heatwaves on non-accidental mortality, yet the association and burden of heatwaves on mechanism-specific injury mortality remain underexplored. This study collected 257,267 injury-related fatalities and corresponding daily maximum temperatures (DMT) across seven Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2023. A heatwave was characterized by two or more successive days where the DMT surpassed its 92.5th percentile. Employing a case-crossover design, the study revealed a 12 % increase in injury mortality [95 % confidence interval (CI): 10 %, 14 %] during heatwave days compared to non-heatwave days, with a notably higher risk for drowning (ER = 22 %, 95 % CI: 16 %, 30 %). From 2013 to 2023, heatwaves were responsible for 1.64 % (95 % CI: 1.37 %, 1.90 %) of total injury-related fatalities. Additionally, future mortality burdens from 2030 to 2099 were projected, revealing that under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the attributable fractions (AFs) of injury mortality due to heatwaves is expected to escalate from 2.66 % in the 2030s (95 % CI: 2.02 %, 3.44 %) to 7.72 % (95 % CI: 5.87 %, 9.97 %) in the 2090s, particularly in southwest China. Regarding specific mechanisms of injury, AFs for drowning is projected to rise significantly from 4.60 % (95 % CI: 3.36 %, 5.87 %) in the 2030s to 13.35 % (95 % CI: 9.75 %, 17.02 %) by the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This investigation underscores that heatwaves pose a significant risk for injury-related mortality, offering valuable insights for the development of adaptation strategies to effectively address climate change.

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全球变暖背景下中国与热浪相关的机制特异性伤害死亡率负担

已有大量研究调查了热浪对非事故死亡率的影响，但热浪对特定机制伤害死亡率的关联和负担仍未得到充分探讨。本研究收集了 2013 年至 2023 年期间中国七个省份的 257267 例与伤害相关的死亡病例和相应的日最高气温（DMT）。热浪的特征是连续两天或两天以上的日最高气温超过其 92.5 百分位数。研究采用了病例交叉设计，结果显示，与非热浪日相比，热浪日的伤害死亡率增加了12%[95%置信区间（CI）：10%，14%]，其中溺水的风险明显更高（ER = 22%，95% CI：16%，30%）。从 2013 年到 2023 年，热浪造成的死亡人数占受伤相关死亡总人数的 1.64%（95 % CI：1.37 %，1.90 %）。此外，对2030年至2099年的未来死亡负担进行了预测，结果显示，在SSP5-8.5情景下，预计热浪导致的伤害死亡的可归因比例（AF）将从2030年的2.66%（95% CI：2.02%，3.44%）上升到2090年的7.72%（95% CI：5.87%，9.97%），尤其是在中国西南地区。关于具体的伤害机制，在 SSP5-8.5 情景下，预计溺水的 AF 将从 2030 年代的 4.60 %（95 % CI：3.36 %，5.87 %）大幅上升至 2090 年代的 13.35 %（95 % CI：9.75 %，17.02 %）。这项调查强调，热浪对与伤害相关的死亡率构成重大风险，为制定有效应对气候变化的适应战略提供了宝贵的见解。

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来源期刊

Environment International 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

21.90

自引率

3.40%

发文量

734

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Health publishes manuscripts focusing on critical aspects of environmental and occupational medicine, including studies in toxicology and epidemiology, to illuminate the human health implications of exposure to environmental hazards. The journal adopts an open-access model and practices open peer review. It caters to scientists and practitioners across all environmental science domains, directly or indirectly impacting human health and well-being. With a commitment to enhancing the prevention of environmentally-related health risks, Environmental Health serves as a public health journal for the community and scientists engaged in matters of public health significance concerning the environment.