Trend and forecast of measles disease, in East Gojjam Zone, Amhara Region, Northwest Ethiopia, 2023: a crossectional study.

Abstract

Background: Measles is a very contagious illness that can be clinically diagnosed and intervened quickly. It is caused by the measles virus Morbillivirus. The disease has a case fatality rate of 5% to 10% in the sub-Saharan region. Recent information on measles forecasting is limited in this study area. Therefore, this study was aimed to assess the five-year trend and next five-year prediction of measles disease in East Gojjam zone, Amhara National Regional State (ANRS), Ethiopia, 2023.

Methods: A descriptive study using case based surveillance data analysis in the East Gojjam zone was conducted. Five-year data (January 1/2018-December 30/2022) was extracted from the WHO database. ARIMA (3, 1, 1) model was used for disease forecasting for the next 5 years of the zone (2023-2027).

Results: For the study, 1003 participants in total were enlisted. 12.3% of the subjects were IgM positive. About 59.4% and 1.2% were epidemiologically linked and died subjects, respectively. Many of the cases (54.2%) occurred in the March season and the lowest (1%) in December. For the next five years (2024-2027), it is predicted that the number of cases will rise gradually in fluctuation.

Conclusion: The disease had an upward trend over the five-year period, and for the next consecutive years, there will be a consistent increase in the number of cases in the zone. It is recommended that the East Gojjam Zone Health Office and different stakeholders have to monitor and evaluate the vaccination status of target children and vaccination coverage and strengthen the surveillance system in the dry-hot season, which is valuable for disease control.