Increased spread risk of citrus long-horned beetle [Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae)] under climate change in Türkiye: Implications for management

IF 2.5 2区农林科学 Q1 AGRONOMY

Crop Protection Pub Date : 2024-12-17 DOI:10.1016/j.cropro.2024.107090

Yasser Alramadan, Mehmet Mamay, Shahid Farooq

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate change and increasing global trade are facilitating species’ introduction and establishment outside their native ranges. Predicting likely introductions and spread areas could help to lower the introduction and spread risk of new species through biosecurity measures. The citrus long-horned beetle (Anoplophora chinensis) is a polyphagous species native to Asia and causes significant damage to several tree species. Anoplophora chinensis (ANOLCN hereafter) has been introduced and spread to various geographical regions, including Türkiye. It is regulated as a quarantine pest in Türkiye; however, continuous range expansion is being observed in the country. This study predicted habitat suitability of ANOLCN in Türkiye under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios by using optimized MaxEnt model. The MaxEnt model was trained and tested with 606 global occurrence records and 13 bioclimatic variables (bio1, bio2, bio3, bio4, bio5, bio6, bio8, bio9, bio12, bio13, bio14, bio15, and bio17). Habitat suitability was predicted for current (1979–2000), and future (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080 and 2081–2100) periods. The model predicted habitat suitability with high accuracy (AUC >0.97). Annual mean temperature (bio1), mean diurnal range (bio2), temperature seasonality (bio4), and precipitation of wettest month (bio13) were predicted as the most important variables affecting habitat suitability of ANOLCN. Results indicated that western and eastern coastal areas of Black Sea region, and some coastal areas in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas have highly suitable habitats for ANOLCN. Highly suitable habitat will expand by 5.99–69.33% under SSP1-2.6 and 13.31–45.78% under SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios compared to current climate. The areas with highly suitable habitat have intensive citrus, hazelnut and olive cultivations, indicating higher and stronger ANOLCN infestation in the future. Therefore, timely and effective management strategies, including strict quarantine regulations are needed to combat the ecological and economic threats posed by ANOLCN in the future.

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气候变化下柑橘长角甲虫（Anoplophora chinensis，鞘翅目：天牛科）传播风险的增加：对管理的启示

气候变化和全球贸易的增加正在促进物种在其原生范围之外的引进和建立。预测可能的引进和传播区域可以通过生物安全措施帮助降低新物种的引进和传播风险。柑橘长角甲虫（Anoplophora chinensis）是一种原产于亚洲的多食性物种，对几种树种造成重大损害。中国天牛（Anoplophora chinensis，以下简称ANOLCN）已被引种并传播到包括泰国在内的多个地理区域。在日本作为检疫性有害生物加以管制；然而，该国的范围正在不断扩大。利用优化后的MaxEnt模型预测了SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5气候变化情景下 rkiye地区ANOLCN的生境适宜性。MaxEnt模型使用606个全球发生记录和13个生物气候变量（bio1、bio2、bio3、bio4、bio5、bio6、bio8、bio9、bio12、bio13、bio14、bio15和bio17）进行了训练和测试。对当前（1979-2000）和未来（2021-2040、2041-2060、2061-2080和2081-2100）的生境适宜性进行了预测。该模型预测生境适宜性精度较高（AUC >0.97）。预测年平均温度（bio1）、平均日差（bio2）、温度季节性（bio4）和最湿月降水（bio13）是影响ANOLCN生境适宜性的最重要变量。结果表明，黑海西部和东部沿海地区以及爱琴海和地中海部分沿海地区具有高度适宜的ANOLCN生境。高适宜生境在SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5气候变化情景下分别比当前气候情景扩大5.99 ~ 69.33%和13.31 ~ 45.78%。高度适宜生境地区柑橘、榛子和橄榄种植密集，表明未来ANOLCN侵染程度更高、更强。因此，需要及时有效的管理策略，包括严格的检疫法规，以应对未来ANOLCN对生态和经济的威胁。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Crop Protection 农林科学-农艺学

CiteScore

6.10

自引率

3.60%

发文量

200

审稿时长

29 days

期刊介绍： The Editors of Crop Protection especially welcome papers describing an interdisciplinary approach showing how different control strategies can be integrated into practical pest management programs, covering high and low input agricultural systems worldwide. Crop Protection particularly emphasizes the practical aspects of control in the field and for protected crops, and includes work which may lead in the near future to more effective control. The journal does not duplicate the many existing excellent biological science journals, which deal mainly with the more fundamental aspects of plant pathology, applied zoology and weed science. Crop Protection covers all practical aspects of pest, disease and weed control, including the following topics: -Abiotic damage- Agronomic control methods- Assessment of pest and disease damage- Molecular methods for the detection and assessment of pests and diseases- Biological control- Biorational pesticides- Control of animal pests of world crops- Control of diseases of crop plants caused by microorganisms- Control of weeds and integrated management- Economic considerations- Effects of plant growth regulators- Environmental benefits of reduced pesticide use- Environmental effects of pesticides- Epidemiology of pests and diseases in relation to control- GM Crops, and genetic engineering applications- Importance and control of postharvest crop losses- Integrated control- Interrelationships and compatibility among different control strategies- Invasive species as they relate to implications for crop protection- Pesticide application methods- Pest management- Phytobiomes for pest and disease control- Resistance management- Sampling and monitoring schemes for diseases, nematodes, pests and weeds.