Disease burden of cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose from 1990 to 2021 and projections until 2031 in China.

IF 2.4 3区医学 Q3 ONCOLOGY

Cancer Epidemiology Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-20 DOI:10.1016/j.canep.2024.102725

Zhong Zheng, Shaojie Xu, Jicun Zhu, Qian Yang, Hua Ye, Meng Li, Xiaoyue Zhang, Haiyan Liu, Yifan Cheng, Yuanlin Zou, Yin Lu, Peng Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) has been indicated as one of the important risk factors for cancers. This study aimed to estimate the disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict the burden until 2031.

Methods: The data of cancers attributable to HFPG were extracted from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 project. A joinpoint regression model was conducted to estimate the temporal trends from 1990 to 2021. The effects of age, period, and cohort were estimated by an age-period-cohort (APC) model. Lastly, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden for the next decade.

Results: From 1990-2021, cancer deaths attributable to HFPG in China increased by 232 % (95 % uncertainty interval [UI]: 156-330.77 %), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased by 195.4 % (95 % UI: 127.38-289.7 %). In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) for the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) were 0.6364 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.4234-0.8498 %) and 0.6263 % (95 % CI: 0.3024-0.9512 %), respectively. Among all cancer types, pancreatic cancer had the largest increase in disease burden. The risks of mortality and DALYs increased with age, while showing initial rapid increase with period growth followed by relative stabilization. The cohort effect indicates that males born later had higher risks of mortality and DALYs. Finally, despite a continuous decline in both ASMR and ASDR, the numbers of deaths and DALYs were projected to continue increasing in the next decade.

Conclusions: The disease burden of cancers attributable to HFPG significantly increased from 1990 to 2021 in China, and the numbers of deaths and DALYs would continuously increase in the next decade. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce targeted policies controlling the disease burden.

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中国1990 - 2021年空腹高血糖导致的癌症疾病负担及2031年之前的预测

背景：高空腹血糖（HFPG）已被认为是癌症的重要危险因素之一。本研究旨在估计1990 - 2021年中国因HFPG导致的癌症疾病负担，并预测到2031年的负担。方法：HFPG导致的癌症数据取自全球疾病、损伤和危险因素研究（GBD） 2021项目。采用结合点回归模型估计了1990 - 2021年的时间趋势。年龄、时期和队列的影响通过年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型进行估计。最后，采用贝叶斯APC模型对未来10年的疾病负担进行预测。结果：1990-2021年，中国因HFPG导致的癌症死亡增加了232 %(95 %不确定区间[UI]: 156-330.77 %)，残疾调整生命年（DALYs）增加了195.4 %（95 % UI: 127.38-289.7 %）。此外，年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化DALYs率（ASDR）的年均百分比变化（AAPC）分别为0.6364 %（95 %可信区间[CI]: 0.4234-0.8498 %）和0.6263 %（95 % CI: 0.3024-0.9512 %）。在所有癌症类型中，胰腺癌的疾病负担增加最多。死亡率和伤残调整生命年的风险随着年龄的增长而增加，最初随着时期的增长而迅速增加，随后相对稳定。队列效应表明，晚出生的男性有更高的死亡率和DALYs风险。最后，尽管ASMR和ASDR都在持续下降，但预计未来十年死亡人数和DALYs将继续增加。结论：1990 - 2021年，中国因HFPG导致的癌症疾病负担显著增加，未来10年死亡人数和DALYs将持续增加。因此，有必要出台有针对性的控制疾病负担的政策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cancer Epidemiology 医学-肿瘤学

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

3.80%

发文量

200

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Cancer Epidemiology is dedicated to increasing understanding about cancer causes, prevention and control. The scope of the journal embraces all aspects of cancer epidemiology including: • Descriptive epidemiology • Studies of risk factors for disease initiation, development and prognosis • Screening and early detection • Prevention and control • Methodological issues The journal publishes original research articles (full length and short reports), systematic reviews and meta-analyses, editorials, commentaries and letters to the editor commenting on previously published research.