The erosion of rationality in high vulnerability conditions: A cognitive-disruption perspective

Abstract

This research examines how a decision-maker's perceived vulnerability influences their susceptibility to the “anecdotal bias,” a phenomenon where statistical evidence is disregarded in favor of anecdotal information. Across six studies, our research shows that high vulnerability aggravates the anecdotal bias instead of reducing it. Study 1 provides preliminary evidence that high vulnerability exacerbates the anecdotal bias among individuals seeking decision-relevant information in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Studies 2A and 2B demonstrate that high vulnerability intensifies the anecdotal bias in different decision contexts. Study 3 replicates these findings and identifies negative emotional arousal as a key mechanism underlying this effect. Study 4 examines the moderating role of personal relevance, showing that when individuals make decisions for others (vs. themselves), high vulnerability does not lead to the anecdotal bias. Moreover, it is cognitive disruption and intuitive thinking caused by negative emotional arousal that increases reliance on anecdotal (vs. statistical) information. Finally, Study 5 demonstrates the moderating effect of mindfulness meditation, highlighting its role as a preemptive safeguard against this biased behavior. Theoretical contributions and practical implications of these findings are discussed.