Distribution of Interseismic Coupling Along the Maidan Fault in Tianshan Before the 2024 Mw 7.0 Wushi Earthquake

Abstract

Despite historically low seismic activity on the Maidan Fault (MDF), the sudden Mw 7.0 Wushi earthquake in early 2024 underscores the urgent need to assess the seismic risk on this fault. This study utilizes Global Navigation Satellite System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling before the Wushi event along the MDF. The four asperities we identified indicate a high seismic risk for the MDF, with potential magnitudes of Mw 7.5–7.6, Mw 7.5–7.7, Mw 7.0–7.2, and Mw 6.8–7.0. Specifically, the Maierkaiqi segment has already accumulated seismic moment comparable to previous event. Furthermore, our comparison of the interseismic coupling model with the coseismic rupture of the Wushi earthquake reveals that the shallow compliant zone, creeping patches, and irregular fault geometry collectively constrained the rupture propagation. The consistency between the rupture and high coupling area also suggests that the obtained coupling distribution may represent potential earthquake-prone zones along the MDF.