Drivers of mangrove area change and suppression in Brazil from 2000 to 2020.

Abstract

Mangrove area loss is increasing globally, and drivers of loss differ depending not only on natural conditions but also on national and regional policies. Some countries with the most mangrove area, for instance, Brazil, lack broad systematic quantification of specific drivers of mangrove land-use and land-cover (LULC) change dynamics. We investigated the direct conversion (i.e., replacement) of mangrove forests due to changes in 21 types of LULC across Brazil from 2000 to 2020 based on annual LULC maps developed by the MapBiomas project. We quantified the area changes at national, regional, and state scales. We also determined and quantified mangrove forest conversion for each of the 21 LULC types with a pixel comparison analysis and identified temporal trends with a time-series analysis. The total conversion of mangrove area (3429 km²) was offset by a gain that was twice as large (6776 km²). Forest formations and water bodies, which may be interpreted as natural or indirect anthropogenic changes, were associated with most of the areas where mangrove cover was lost. Land-use modifications, mainly creation of pastures, accounted for 4% of direct mangrove conversions. We found that changes in LULC categories and patterns of gain and loss of mangrove areas differed among Brazilian states and regions. Based on other research, they also differ between Brazil and other countries. Thus, integrated mangrove forest conservation and management efforts that transcend political boundaries are essential to effectively address negative impacts on mangrove forests. We provide an interactive map to allow qualitative assessments of mangrove conversion drivers by different stakeholders, such as managers, policymakers, and nongovernmental organizations.