Emerging influence of the Australian Monsoon on Indian Ocean interannual variability in a warming climate

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00879-9

Mengyan Chen, Matthew Collins, Jin-Yi Yu, Xin Wang, Lei Zhang, Chi-Yung Tam

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Abstract

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Tripole (IOT) represent primary modes of interannual variability in the Indian Ocean, impacting both regional and global climate. Unlike the IOD, which is closely related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), our findings unveil a substantial influence of the Australian Monsoon on the IOT. An anomalously strong Monsoon induces local sea surface temperature (SST) variations via the wind-evaporation-SST mechanism, triggering atmospheric circulation anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean. These circulation changes lead to changes in oceanic heat transport, facilitating the formation of the IOT. Our analysis reveals a strengthening connection between the Australian Monsoon and the IOT in recent decades, with a projected further strengthening under global warming. This contrasts with the diminished coupling between ENSO and IOD in recent decades from observations and model projections, illustrating evolving Indian Ocean dynamics under the warming climate.

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.