Agricultural policy and crop location: Long-run output and spatial climate risk consequences

IF 4.2 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY
Jan C. Greyling, Phillip G. Pardey, Senait Senay
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Choices by farmers—notably what crop to grow, where—are not only influenced by spatially sensitive environmental attributes but also economic factors that respond to changes in government policies. In South Africa, the policy stance toward agriculture swung toward an extended period of support spanning the middle of the 20th century. Subsequently, the agricultural support policies were eliminated in the post-Apartheid period beginning in the 1990s. Using a purpose-built, spatially explicit data set for South African agriculture spanning the period 1918–2015, we show these structural shifts in agricultural policy regimes concord with major shifts in national corn price trends and variability, and the area planted to corn (accounting for half the country's cropped area). More subtly, and much less studied, we reveal that these switching policy regimes also aligned with changes in the location of crop production, with pronounced consequences for crop output and climate risk. At its peak, policy-aligned crop movement in South Africa reduced corn output by between 7.9% and 15.3%, and placed production in areas with reduced and riskier rainfall patterns. Upon removal of the policy distortions, the decline in total corn area continued, and the crop largely reverted to its predistorted, less climate-risky geographical locations. The geographical sensitivities of the agricultural policy–production–climate risk nexus we reveal suggest these locational aspects deserve more concerted analytical and policy design attention, especially in light of the longer run, spatially sensitive production and food security risk implications of the changing climate realities facing agriculture the world over.

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来源期刊
American Journal of Agricultural Economics
American Journal of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策
CiteScore
9.10
自引率
4.80%
发文量
77
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: The American Journal of Agricultural Economics provides a forum for creative and scholarly work on the economics of agriculture and food, natural resources and the environment, and rural and community development throughout the world. Papers should relate to one of these areas, should have a problem orientation, and should demonstrate originality and innovation in analysis, methods, or application. Analyses of problems pertinent to research, extension, and teaching are equally encouraged, as is interdisciplinary research with a significant economic component. Review articles that offer a comprehensive and insightful survey of a relevant subject, consistent with the scope of the Journal as discussed above, will also be considered. All articles published, regardless of their nature, will be held to the same set of scholarly standards.
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